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McCain v. Obama's Effect on Supreme Court

The New York Times compares Barack Obama and John McCain's effect on the Supreme Court.

Mr. McCain has promised the right wing of the Republican Party that he would put only archconservatives on the Supreme Court. Even moderate conservatives like Anthony Kennedy, the court’s current swing justice, would not have a chance.

Mr. McCain, whose Web site proclaims his dedication to overturning Roe v. Wade, would appoint justices who could be expected to lead the charge to eliminate the right to abortion. The kinds of justices for whom Mr. McCain has expressed a strong preference would also be likely to undermine the right of habeas corpus, allowing the government to detain people indefinitely without access to lawyers or family members.

After more examples of the court we'd get under McCain, the Times evaluates Obama's effect: [More...]

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AP Poll on Race and the Election: Race Could Hurt Obama

How big a role will race play in the presidential election? Via an AP poll out today:

According to the poll released Saturday, a little over one-third of white Democrats and independents agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, and they are less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't hold such views.

....statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice.

Full poll results are here (pdf.) AP analysis is here. [More..]

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Women for Change Find It In Obama, Not McCain

If you compare the records of Barack Obama and John McCain, it’s clear that Barack Obama stands with women on the issues that are important to them: equal pay for equal work, the right to choose, comprehensive health care reform. Examples, as received from the Obama campaign, below:

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SUSA New Mexico Poll: Obama Leads By 8

A Survey USA Today poll of New Mexico voters released today finds Sen. Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by 8 points:

In an election for President of the United States in New Mexico today, 09/17/08, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain by 8 points, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV in Albuquerque. Today, it's Obama 52%, McCain 44%.

McCain leads by 11 among whites; Obama leads by 41 among Hispanics. Obama leads by 12 among voters younger than Obama. McCain leads by 10 among voters older than McCain. Half of voters say the economy is most important. Among those voters, Obama leads 3:2. Obama leads among the more educated. McCain leads among the less educated. Obama leads among the less affluent. McCain leads among the more affluent.

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Reuters/Zogby Poll: Obama Gains Among Women, Independents

The Reuters/Zogby poll released today has Sen. Barack Obama leading John McCain by 2 points, wiping out McCain's pre-convention lead.

Obama leads McCain among likely voters by 47 percent to 45 percent, within the poll's 3.1 percent margin of error. He gained ground in the last month among independent and women voters and on the question of who could best manage the faltering U.S. economy.

Obama wiped out McCain's 5-point edge in a Reuters/Zogby poll taken in August before the nominating conventions, a sign the Arizona senator could be drifting back to earth from what other opinion polls showed was a post-convention surge.

Sarah Palin isn't helping McCain with anyone except his core base. [More...]

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McCain Flip-Flops on AIG Bailout

Yesterday John McCain opposed federal intervention to keep AIG alive. Today he supports it. Sen. Obama had a great line today when commenting on McCain's changed position:

"But it sounds like he got a little carried away, because yesterday, John McCain actually said that if he's president, he'll take on the - quote - 'old boys network' in Washington. I am not making this up. This is someone who's been in Congress for 26 years - who put seven of the most powerful Washington lobbyists in charge of his campaign - and now he tells us that he's the one who will take on the old boy network.

"The old boy network? In the McCain campaign, that's called a staff meeting," Obama said.

Good one.

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Obama's New Social Security Ad

Great ad.

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CNN/Time Poll: Obama Ahead in WI, Florida Tied

A new CNN/Time Magazine poll came out today.

  • In Indiana and North Carolina, McCain/Palin leads Obama/Biden, 51% to 45%, and 48% to 47%, respectively.
  • Obama leads McCain in the states of Ohio and Wisconsin, 49% to 47% and 50% to 47%, respectively.
  • The new poll finds the candidates in a dead heat in Florida, each with 48%.

Bottom line: Factoring in the margins of error, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio remain in a virtual tie between John McCain and Barack Obama. As to the electoral map, CNN says: [More...]

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PPP VA Poll: Obama Maintains Small Lead

PPP's latest Virginia poll (pdf) is out, showing Obama, for the 4th month in a row, continues to have a 2 point lead over John McCain.

One reason: Biden is far more popular there than Gov. Sarah Palin:

Virginia is the only battleground state PPP has polled in where Joe Biden gets better overall reviews than Sarah Palin. Biden has a net 11 point favorability rating with 38% of respondents saying
that his selection made them more likely to vote for Obama while just 27% say his choice made them less likely to choose the Democrat.

Palin has just a two point net favorability,
with 42% saying they are more likely to vote John McCain because of her and 40% saying they are less likely to do so.

40% of those polled say they are less likely to vote for McCain because of Palin. 42% say the opposite. Sarah Palin = Polarizer in Chief.

More...

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Palin Distorts Record, Gets Heckled at Colorado Event

The Denver Post has more on Gov. Sarah Palin's campaign event in Colorado today: She repeated her lie about opposing the Bridge to Nowhere and was heckled by a woman in the back who sporadically yelled "You're Not Qualified."

The audience response to the heckler: It turned to her and shouted "U.S.A., U.S.A."

Colorado Rep. Ed Perlmutter, a long-time Obama supporter, has this terrific response to Palin:

"If Governor Palin wants to represent 'change' in Washington," U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter, D-Golden, said in a statement, "she could try something like telling the truth about her record of support for the bridge to nowhere or for other pork-barrel earmarks, her outdated and extreme positions on women's issues, her heaping of millions of dollars in debt upon the small town of Wasilla, Alaska, or her abuse of power investigation.

More....

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Obama's Remarks on Economy at Grand Junction, CO Rally

Here is a portion of the text of Sen. Barack Obama's prepared remarks at his rally today in Grand Junction, CO (received by e-mail, no link.)

This morning we woke up to some very serious and troubling news from Wall Street.

The situation with Lehman Brothers and other financial institutions is the latest in a wave of crises that are generating enormous uncertainty about the future of our financial markets. This turmoil is a major threat to our economy and its ability to create good-paying jobs and help working Americans pay their bills, save for their future, and make their mortgage payments.

More...

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Obama Up By 12 In Latest Iowa Poll

The latest Iowa poll shows Sen. Barack Obama up by 12 points over McCain.

Key findings:

  • Independents prefer Obama to McCain, 49 percent to 36 percent.
  • Voters under 35 prefer Obama by two to one.
  • Obama leads among women, 53 percent to 39 percent for McCain.
  • Republicans are more satisfied with McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin, than Democrats are with Joe Biden, Obama’s vice presidential pick.
  • President Bush’s approval rating with Iowans is at an abysmal 25 percent, with 71 percent disapproving.
  • Senator Chuck Grassley remains popular with Iowans, at 69 percent approval.

I take this as a sign Obama is resonating with rural voters. Hopefully, we'll see similar results in Ohio and other battleground states with high rural populations.

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